We consider long priced lays to be anything over 30 on the betting exchanges up to the full 1000. Like some people, we’ve often wondered if there is a long term strategy laying high priced bets looking for very unlikely options to lay. As experienced football traders, we will look into this from a football perspective using stats to identify targets.
A scoreline that caught our attention for a lay was the 3-3 draw as it is very uncommon in the Premier League. In the 18/19 season, there was one 3-3 draw between Bournemouth and Watford. In the 17-18 season, there was tow 3-3 draws, both featured Liverpool.
We’ve also looked at 4-3 and surprisingly there were more 4-3 game than 3-3 in these seasons (4).
If you then take Liverpool and Arsenal out of the stats you are left with just one 3-3 draw in two seasons and two 4-3 games. This identifies Liverpool and Arsenal as two teams to avoid.
We plan to run this strategy on paper as a guide for you to see. Odds stated will be from the Betfair app.
Disclaimer: This is not a guaranteed way to make money and carries risks as does all gambling. Only stake what you can afford, and are comfortable with losing.
AOH = Any other home win (Home team to score 4 or more and win)
AOA = As above for the away team
High priced lay example selections
- 26/10/19 – Burnley v Chelsea, Lay AOH at 44-50
- 26/10/19 – Brighton v Everton, Lay 3-3 at 80-110
- 25/10/19 -Southampton v Leicester, lay AOH at 34
Whilst the returns in £ seem low for the high stakes risked the idea is to build up making small % gains on a daily basis rather than trying to win big quickly.
Here are the % returns at different odds
- 30 Odds = 3.3%
- 40 Odds = 2.5%
- 50 Odds = 2%
- 75 Odds = 1.33%
- 100 Odds = 1%
- 1000 Odds = 0.1%
When I’m looking on the exchanges I’m often puzzled by people offering 1000 odds as at a 0.1% return it hardly seems worth it. Although it is extremely rare to see anything win at 1000s in any sport (you do occasionally get some horses winning in running at that price). I am sure there are people making a steady return using bots to trade these prices.
Why football and not horse racing?
As mentioned above we are much more into football and have a better grasp of the data behind matches. For example, our very first trade was a lay on Southampton not to win AOH, we can quickly check the stats and see that they haven’t scored more than 3 goals at home in just under 2 years. By identifying stats it helps us to find highly unlikely scores in matches. This does not mean that you will always win it is just about playing the percentages over time.
With horse racing, we are less knowledgable so don’t focus on it. I am sure there are options for trading high priced horses if you know they aren’t going to win.